Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.

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  • The physics of financial networks

    MBM. BardosciaPBP. BaruccaSBFCGC... Nature Reviews Physics

    The physics of financial networks

    Statistical physics contributes to new models and metrics for the study of financial network structure, dynamics, stability and instability.

  • Controlling systemic risk: Network structures that minimize it and node properties to calculate it

    SMGCG. CaldarelliVZ Physical Review E

    Risky bank interactions

    Networks where risky banks are mostly exposed to other risky banks have higher levels of systemic risk than those with stable bank interactions.

  • True scale-free networks hidden by finite size effects

    M.SGCAMARS.S... Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA

    True scale-free networks

    Naturally occurring networks have an underlying scale-free structure that is often clouded by finite-size effects in the sample data.

  • Network valuation in financial systems

    PBP. BaruccaMBM. BardosciaFCMDGV... Mathematical Finance

    Network valuation in financial systems

    Consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system can be found with a recursive update of banks' equities.

  • Nature Reviews Physics

    Physics of networks

    Statistical physics harnesses links between maximum entropy and information theory to capture null model and real-world network features.

  • Journal of Statistical Physics

    Information asymmetry

    Network users who have access to the network’s most informative node, as quantified by a novel index, the InfoRank, have a competitive edge.

  • Journal of Statistical Physics

    From ecology to finance

    Bipartite networks model the structures of ecological and economic real-world systems, enabling hypothesis testing and crisis forecasting.

  • Scientific Reports

    Bayesian analysis of medical data

    Bayesian networks describe the evolution of orthodontic features on patients receiving treatment versus no treatment for malocclusion.

  • Physical Review E

    Financial network reconstruction

    Statistical mechanics concepts reconstruct connections between financial institutions and the stock market, despite limited data disclosure.

  • Physical Review E

    Bipartite trade network

    A new algorithm unveils complicated structures in the bipartite mapping between countries and products of the international trade network.

  • PLOS ONE

    Debunking in a world of tribes

    When people operate in echo chambers, they focus on information adhering to their system of beliefs. Debunking them is harder than it seems

  • Nature Communications

    Pathways towards instability

    Processes believed to stabilize financial markets can drive them towards instability by creating cyclical structures that amplify distress.

  • PLoS ONE

    Non-linear distress propagation

    Non-linear models of distress propagation in financial networks characterise key regimes where shocks are either amplified or suppressed.

  • Journal de Physique IV

    Immunisation of systemic risk

    Targeted immunisation policies limit distress propagation and prevent system-wide crises in financial networks according to sandpile models.

  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA

    The price of complexity

    Increasing the complexity of the network of contracts between financial institutions decreases the accuracy of estimating systemic risk.

  • Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena

    Cascades in flow networks

    Coupled distribution grids are more vulnerable to a cascading systemic failure but they have larger safe regions within their networks.

  • Scientific Reports

    Self-organising adaptive networks

    An adaptive network of oscillators in fragmented and incoherent states can re-organise itself into connected and synchronized states.

  • PLoS ONE

    News sentiment and price dynamics

    News sentiment analysis and web browsing data are unilluminating alone, but inspected together, predict fluctuations in stock prices.

  • Physical Review E

    Communities in networks

    A new tool derived from information theory quantitatively identifies trees, hierarchies and community structures within complex networks.

  • PLoS ONE

    Effect of Twitter on stock prices

    When the number of tweets about an event peaks, the sentiment of those tweets correlates strongly with abnormal stock market returns.

  • Physical Review E

    Democracy in networks

    Analysis of the hyperbolicity of real-world networks distinguishes between those which are aristocratic and those which are democratic.

  • PLoS ONE

    Collective attention to politics

    Tweet volume is a good indicator of political parties' success in elections when considered over an optimal time window so as to minimise noise.

  • PLOS ONE

    DebtRank and shock propagation

    A dynamical microscopic theory of instability for financial networks reformulates the DebtRank algorithm in terms of basic accounting principles.

  • Network Theory of Finance

    Fragility of the interbank network

    The speed of a financial crisis outbreak sets the maximum delay before intervention by central authorities is no longer effective.

  • Scientific Reports

    Networks of credit default swaps

    Time series data from networks of credit default swaps display no early warnings of financial crises without additional macroeconomic indicators.

  • PLOS ONE

    Self-healing complex networks

    The interplay between redundancies and smart reconfiguration protocols can improve the resilience of networked infrastructures to failures.

  • Scientific Reports

    Default cascades in networks

    The optimal architecture of a financial system is only dependent on its topology when the market is illiquid, and no topology is always superior.

  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

    Metrics for global competitiveness

    A new non-monetary metric captures diversification, a dominant effect on the globalised market, and the effective complexity of products.

  • PLOS ONE

    Measuring the intangibles

    Coupled non-linear maps extract information about the competitiveness of countries to the complexity of their products from trade data.

  • Entropy

    The temperature of networks

    A new concept, graph temperature, enables the prediction of distinct topological properties of real-world networks simultaneously.

  • Social Informatics

    Scales in weighted networks

    Information theory fixes weighted networks’ degeneracy issues with a generalisation of binary graphs and an optimal scale of link intensities.

  • Scientific Reports

    Interbank controllability

    Complex networks detect the driver institutions of an interbank market and ascertain that intervention policies should be time-scale dependent.

  • Nature Physics

    Reconstructing credit

    New mathematical tools can help infer financial networks from partial data to understand the propagation of distress through the network.

  • Nature Physics

    Complex derivatives

    Network-based metrics to assess systemic risk and the importance of financial institutions can help tame the financial derivatives market.

  • Journal of Statistical Physics

    Bootstrapping topology and risk

    Information about 10% of the links in a complex network is sufficient to reconstruct its main features and resilience with the fitness model.

  • Physical Review E

    Weighted network evolution

    A statistical procedure identifies dominant edges within weighted networks to determine whether a network has reached its steady state.

  • PLOS ONE

    Network analysis of export flows

    Network theory finds unexpected interactions between the number of products a country produces and the number of countries producing each product.

  • Scientific Reports

    Metric for fitness and complexity

    A quantitative assessment of the non-monetary advantage of diversification represents a country’s hidden potential for development and growth.

  • PLoS ONE

    Networks for medical data

    Network analysis of diagnostic data identifies combinations of the key factors which cause Class III malocclusion and how they evolve over time.

  • PLoS ONE

    Search queries predict stocks

    Analysis of web search queries about a given stock, from the seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users, can anticipate the trading peak.

  • EPL

    Robust and assortative

    Spectral analysis shows that disassortative networks exhibit a higher epidemiological threshold and are therefore easier to immunize.

  • EPL

    Clustering inverted

    Edge multiplicity—the number of triangles attached to edges—is a powerful analytic tool to understand and generalize network properties.