Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each one is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make our papers clear, inspiring and beautiful, and publish them in leading journals.

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  • O. GamayunO. Gamayun
  • A. V. KosyakA. V. Kosyak
  • A. OchirovA. Ochirov
  • E. SobkoE. Sobko
  • Y. HeY. He
  • M. BurtsevM. Burtsev
  • M. ReevesM. Reeves
  • I. ShkredovI. Shkredov
  • T. FinkT. Fink
  • F. SheldonF. Sheldon
  • G. CaldarelliG. Caldarelli
  • R. HannamR. Hannam
  • A. EsterovA. Esterov
  • F. CaravelliF. Caravelli
  • A. CoolenA. Coolen
  • O. DahlstenO. Dahlsten
  • A. MozeikaA. Mozeika
  • M. BardosciaM. Bardoscia
  • P. BaruccaP. Barucca
  • M. RowleyM. Rowley
  • I. TeimouriI. Teimouri
  • F. AntenucciF. Antenucci
  • A. ScalaA. Scala
  • R. FarrR. Farr
  • A. ZegaracA. Zegarac
  • S. SebastioS. Sebastio
  • B. BollobásB. Bollobás
  • F. LafondF. Lafond
  • D. FarmerD. Farmer
  • C. PickardC. Pickard
  • T. ReevesT. Reeves
  • J. BlundellJ. Blundell
  • A. GallagherA. Gallagher
  • M. PrzykuckiM. Przykucki
  • P. SmithP. Smith
  • L. PietroneroL. Pietronero
  • The role of complexity for digital twins of cities

    Complex systems

    GCG. CaldarelliEAMBMBCG... Nature Computational Science

    Complex digital cities

    A complexity-science approach to digital twins of cities views them as self-organising phenomena, instead of machines or logistic systems.

  • Laplacian renormalization group for heterogeneous networks

    Statistical physics

    PVTGGCG. CaldarelliAG Nature Physics

    Network renormalization

    Applying diffusion-based graph operators to complex networks identifies the proper spatiotemporal scales by overcoming small-world effects.

  • True scale-free networks hidden by finite size effects

    Network theory

    M.SGCAMARS.S... Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA

    True scale-free networks

    The underlying scale invariance properties of naturally occurring networks are often clouded by finite-size effects due to the sample data.

  • Emergent spatial patterns of coexistence in species-rich plant communities

    Statistical physics

    PVTGGCG. Caldarelli Physical Review E

    Coexistence in diverse ecosystems

    Scale-invariant plant clusters explain the ability for a diverse range of plant species to coexist in ecosystems such as Barra Colorado.

  • Network theory

    Nature Reviews Physics

    Physics of financial networks

    Statistical physics contributes to new models and metrics for the study of financial network structure, dynamics, stability and instability.

  • Financial risk

    Physical Review E

    Risky bank interactions

    Networks where risky banks are mostly exposed to other risky banks have higher levels of systemic risk than those with stable bank interactions.

  • Financial markets

    Mathematical Finance

    Network valuation in finance

    Consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system can be found with a recursive update of banks' equities.

  • Statistical physics

    Nature Reviews Physics

    Physics of networks

    Statistical physics harnesses links between maximum entropy and information theory to capture null model and real-world network features.

  • Complex networks

    Journal of Statistical Physics

    Information asymmetry

    Network users who have access to the network’s most informative node, as quantified by a novel index, the InfoRank, have a competitive edge.

  • Financial networks

    Journal of Statistical Physics

    From ecology to finance

    Bipartite networks model the structures of ecological and economic real-world systems, enabling hypothesis testing and crisis forecasting.

  • Mathematical medicine

    Scientific Reports

    Bayesian analysis of medical data

    Bayesian networks describe the evolution of orthodontic features on patients receiving treatment versus no treatment for malocclusion.

  • Network theory

    PLoS ONE

    Debunking in a world of tribes

    When people operate in echo chambers, they focus on information adhering to their system of beliefs. Debunking them is harder than it seems.

  • Financial networks

    Physical Review E

    Bipartite trade network

    A new algorithm unveils complicated structures in the bipartite mapping between countries and products of the international trade network.

  • Financial markets

    Physical Review E

    Financial network reconstruction

    Statistical mechanics concepts reconstruct connections between financial institutions and the stock market, despite limited data disclosure.

  • Financial risk

    Nature Communications

    Pathways towards instability

    Processes believed to stabilize financial markets can drive them towards instability by creating cyclical structures that amplify distress.

  • Complex networks, Financial risk

    PLoS ONE

    Non-linear distress propagation

    Non-linear models of distress propagation in financial networks characterise key regimes where shocks are either amplified or suppressed.

  • Financial risk

    Journal de Physique IV

    Immunisation of systemic risk

    Targeted immunisation policies limit distress propagation and prevent system-wide crises in financial networks according to sandpile models.

  • Financial risk

    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA

    The price of complexity

    Increasing the complexity of the network of contracts between financial institutions decreases the accuracy of estimating systemic risk.

  • Network theory

    Physica D

    Cascades in flow networks

    Coupled distribution grids are more vulnerable to a cascading systemic failure but they have larger safe regions within their networks.

  • Percolation theory

    Scientific Reports

    Self-organising adaptive networks

    An adaptive network of oscillators in fragmented and incoherent states can re-organise itself into connected and synchronized states.

  • Financial markets

    PLoS ONE

    News sentiment and price dynamics

    News sentiment analysis and web browsing data are unilluminating alone, but inspected together, predict fluctuations in stock prices.

  • Network theory

    Physical Review E

    Communities in networks

    A new tool derived from information theory quantitatively identifies trees, hierarchies and community structures within complex networks.

  • Financial markets

    PLoS ONE

    Effect of Twitter on stock prices

    When the number of tweets about an event peaks, the sentiment of those tweets correlates strongly with abnormal stock market returns.

  • Complex networks

    Physical Review E

    Democracy in networks

    Analysis of the hyperbolicity of real-world networks distinguishes between those which are aristocratic and those which are democratic.

  • Complex networks

    PLoS ONE

    Collective attention to politics

    Tweet volume is a good indicator of political parties' success in elections when considered over an optimal time window so as to minimise noise.

  • Financial risk

    PLoS ONE

    DebtRank and shock propagation

    A dynamical microscopic theory of instability for financial networks reformulates the DebtRank algorithm in terms of basic accounting principles.

  • Financial risk, Network theory

    Network Theory of Finance

    Fragility of the interbank network

    The speed of a financial crisis outbreak sets the maximum delay before intervention by central authorities is no longer effective.

  • Financial risk

    Scientific Reports

    Networks of credit default swaps

    Time series data from networks of credit default swaps display no early warnings of financial crises without additional macroeconomic indicators.

  • Network theory

    PLoS ONE

    Self-healing complex networks

    The interplay between redundancies and smart reconfiguration protocols can improve the resilience of networked infrastructures to failures.

  • Financial risk

    Scientific Reports

    Default cascades in networks

    The optimal architecture of a financial system is only dependent on its topology when the market is illiquid, and no topology is always superior.

  • Economic complexity

    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

    Metrics for global competitiveness

    A new non-monetary metric captures diversification, a dominant effect on the globalised market, and the effective complexity of products.

  • Economic complexity

    PLoS ONE

    Measuring the intangibles

    Coupled non-linear maps extract information about the competitiveness of countries to the complexity of their products from trade data.

  • Network theory

    Entropy

    The temperature of networks

    A new concept, graph temperature, enables the prediction of distinct topological properties of real-world networks simultaneously.

  • Network theory

    Social Informatics

    Scales in weighted networks

    Information theory fixes weighted networks’ degeneracy issues with a generalisation of binary graphs and an optimal scale of link intensities.

  • Financial networks

    Scientific Reports

    Interbank controllability

    Complex networks detect the driver institutions of an interbank market and ascertain that intervention policies should be time-scale dependent.

  • Financial networks

    Nature Physics

    Reconstructing credit

    New mathematical tools can help infer financial networks from partial data to understand the propagation of distress through the network.

  • Financial networks

    Nature Physics

    Complex derivatives

    Network-based metrics to assess systemic risk and the importance of financial institutions can help tame the financial derivatives market.

  • Financial risk

    Journal of Statistical Physics

    Bootstrapping topology and risk

    Information about 10% of the links in a complex network is sufficient to reconstruct its main features and resilience with the fitness model.

  • Network theory

    Physical Review E

    Weighted network evolution

    A statistical procedure identifies dominant edges within weighted networks to determine whether a network has reached its steady state.

  • Economic complexity

    PLoS ONE

    Network analysis of export flows

    Network theory finds unexpected interactions between the number of products a country produces and the number of countries producing each product.

  • Economic complexity

    Scientific Reports

    Metric for fitness and complexity

    A quantitative assessment of the non-monetary advantage of diversification represents a country’s hidden potential for development and growth.

  • Mathematical medicine

    PLoS ONE

    Networks for medical data

    Network analysis of diagnostic data identifies combinations of the key factors which cause Class III malocclusion and how they evolve over time.

  • Financial markets

    PLoS ONE

    Search queries predict stocks

    Analysis of web search queries about a given stock, from the seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users, can anticipate the trading peak.

  • Network theory

    EPL

    Robust and assortative

    Spectral analysis shows that disassortative networks exhibit a higher epidemiological threshold and are therefore easier to immunize.

  • Network theory

    EPL

    Clustering inverted

    Edge multiplicity—the number of triangles attached to edges—is a powerful analytic tool to understand and generalize network properties.