# Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties

Y. Eom, M. Puliga, J. Smailović, I. Mozetič, G. Caldarelli

* PLoS ONE* 1, 1 (2015)

#forecasting#complexsystems#socialnetworks

Daily tweet volume for each party around elections

Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media.

#### A phase transition creates the geometry of the continuum from discrete space

R. Farr, T. Fink

Sub. to *Physical Review E*

#### The statistical physics of real-world networks

G. Cimini, T. Squartini, F. Saracco, D. Garlaschelli, A. Gabrielli, G. Caldarelli

*Nature Reviews Physics*

#### On defining the Hamiltonian beyond quantum theory

D. Branford, O. Dahlsten, A. Garner

*Foundations of Physics*

#### Reconstructing grain-shape statistics from electron back-scatter diffraction microscopy

R. Farr, Z. Vukmanovic, M. Holness, E. Griffiths

*Physical Review Materials*

#### Tackling information asymmetry in networks: a new entropy-based ranking index

P. Barucca, G. Caldarelli, T. Squartini

*Journal of Statistical Physics*

#### Eigenvalues of subgraphs of the cube

B. Bollobás, J. Lee, S. Letzter

*European Journal of Combinatorics*

#### Maximum one-shot dissipated work from Rényi divergences

N. Halpern, A. Garner, O. Dahlsten, V. Vedral

*Physical Review E *

#### A holistic approach for collaborative workload execution in volunteer clouds

S. Sebastio, M. Amoretti, A. Lafuente, A. Scala

* ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation*

#### From ecology to finance (and back?): a review on entropy-based null models for the analysis of bipartite networks

M. Straka, G. Caldarelli, T. Squartini, F. Saracco

*Journal of Statistical Physics*

#### How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

F. Lafond, A. Bailey, J. Bakker, D. Rebois, R. Zadourian, P. McSharry, D. Farmer

*Technological Forecasting and Social Change*

#### A complex network approach for the estimation of the energy demand of electric mobility

M. Mureddu, A. Facchini, A. Scala, G. Caldarelli, A. Damiano

*Scientific Reports *

#### The organization of the interbank network and how ECB unconventional measures affected the e-MID overnight market

F. Lillo, P. Barucca

*Computational Management Science*

#### Exactly solvable random graph ensemble with extensively many short cycles

F. Lopez, P. Barucca, M. Fekom, A. Coolen

*Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical*

#### Serendipity and strategy in rapid innovation

T. Fink, M. Reeves, R. Palma, R. Farr

*Nature Communications*

#### Network models of financial systemic risk: a review

F. Caccioli, P. Barucca, T. Kobayashi

*Journal of Computational Social Science*

#### Dirac cones in two-dimensional borane

M. Martinez-Canales, T. Galeev, A. Boldyrev, C. Pickard

*Physical Review B*

#### Bayesian networks analysis of malocclusion data

M. Scutari, P. Auconi, G. Caldarelli, L. Franchi

*Scientific Reports*

#### Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for bipartite financial networks reconstruction

T. Squartini, G. Caldarelli, G. Cimini

*Physical Review E*

#### Quantum generalisation of feedforward neural networks

K. Wan, O. Dahlsten, H. Kristjansson, R. Gardner, M. Kim

*Nature Quantum Information*

#### Grand canonical validation of the bipartite international trade network

M. Straka, G. Caldarelli, F. Saracco

*Physical Review E*

#### Organic molecule fluorescence as an experimental test-bed for quantum jumps in thermodynamics

C. Browne, T. Farrow, O. Dahlsten, V. Vedral

*Proceedings of the Royal Society A*

#### Debunking in a world of tribes

F. Zollo, A. Bessi, M. Vicario, G. Caldarelli, L. Shekhtman, S. Havlin, W. Quattrociocchi

*PLOS ONE*

#### Exactly solvable model of memristive circuits: Lyapunov functional and mean field theory

F. Caravelli, P. Barucca

Sub. to *European Physical Journal B*

#### Mean grain diameters from thin sections: matching the average to the problem

R. Farr, V. Honour, M. Holness

*Mineralogical Magazine*

#### The mise en scene of memristive networks: effective memory, dynamics and learning

F. Caravelli

*International Journal of Parallel, Emergent and Distributed Systems*

#### Entropic equality for worst-case work at any protocol speed

O. Dahlsten, M. Choi, D. Braun, A. Garner, N. Halpern, V. Vedral

*New Journal of Physics*

#### Harnessing the secret structure of innovation

M. Reeves, T. Fink, R. Palma, J. Harnoss

*MIT Sloan Management Review*

#### Pathways towards instability in financial networks

M. Bardoscia, S. Battiston, F. Caccioli, G. Caldarelli

*Nature Communications*

#### The complex dynamics of memristive circuits: analytical results and universal slow relaxation

F. Caravelli, F. Traversa, M. Ventra

*Physical Review E*

#### Disentangling group and link persistence in Dynamic Stochastic Block models

P. Barucca, F. Lillo, P. Mazzarisi, D. Tantari

Sub. to *Journal of Statistical Physics*

#### Distress propagation in complex networks: the case of non-linear DebtRank

M. Bardoscia, F. Caccioli, J. Perotti, G. Vivaldo, G. Caldarelli

*PLoS ONE *

#### Mitigating cascades in sandpile models: an immunization strategy for systemic risk?

A. Scala, V. Zlatić, G. Caldarelli, G. D’Agostino

*Journal de Physique IV*

#### Islanding the power grid on the transmission level: less connections for more security

M. Mureddu, G. Caldarelli, A. Damiano, A. Scala, H. Meyer-Ortmanns

*Scientific Reports*

#### Resolution of ranking hierarchies in directed networks

E. Letizia, P. Barucca, F. Lillo

Sub. to *PLOS ONE*

#### Optimal growth trajectories with finite carrying capacity

F. Caravelli, L. Sindoni, F. Caccioli, C. Ududec

*Physical Review E*

#### The price of complexity in financial networks

S. Battiston, G. Caldarelli, R. May, T. Roukny, J. Stiglitz

*Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*

#### Network valuation in financial systems

P. Barucca, M. Bardoscia, F. Caccioli, M. D’Errico, G. Visentin, S. Battiston, G. Caldarelli

Sub. to *Mathematical Finance*

#### Cascades in interdependent flow networks

A. Scala, P. Lucentini, G. Caldarelli, G. D’Agostino

*Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena *

#### Concurrent enhancement of percolation and synchronization in adaptive networks

Y. Eom, S. Boccaletti, G. Caldarelli

*Scientific Reports *

#### Networks of plants: how to measure similarity in vegetable species

G. Vivaldo, E. Masi, C. Pandolfi, S. Mancuso, G. Caldarelli

*Scientific Reports *

#### Emergence of strongly connected components in continuum disk-spin percolation

F. Caravelli, M. Bardoscia, F. Caccioli

*Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment*

#### Eigenvalues of neutral networks: Interpolating between hypercubes

T. Reeves, R. Farr, J. Blundell, A. Gallagher, T. Fink

*Discrete Mathematics*

#### Geometric phases and cyclic isotropic cosmologies

L. Banchi, F. Caravelli

*Classical and Quantum Gravity*

#### Photonic Maxwell’s demon

M. Vidrighin, O. Dahlsten, M. Barbieri, M. Kim, V. Vedral, I. Walmsley

*Physical Review Letters*

#### Coupling news sentiment with web browsing data improves prediction of intra-day price dynamics

G. Ranco, I. Bordino, G. Bormetti, G. Caldarelli, F. Lillo, M. Treccani

*PLoS ONE *

#### Subcritical U-Bootstrap percolation models have non-trivial phase transitions

P. Balister, B. Bollobas, M. Przykucki, P. Smith

*Transactions of the American Mathematical Society*

#### Hierarchical mutual information for the comparison of hierarchical community structures in complex networks.

J. Perotti, C. Tessone, G. Caldarelli

*Physical Review E *

#### Green power grids: how energy from renewable sources affects networks and markets

M. Mureddu, G. Caldarelli, A. Chessa, A. Scala, A. Damiano

*PLoS ONE *

#### Hyperbolicity measures democracy in real-world networks

M. Borassi, A. Chessa, G. Caldarelli

* Physical Review E *

#### Quantifying noise in mass spectrometry and yeast two-hybrid protein interaction detection experiments

A. Annibale, A. Coolen, N. Planell-Morell

*Journal of the Royal Society Interface*

#### The effects of Twitter sentiment on stock price returns

G. Ranco, D. Aleksovski, G. Caldarelli, M. Grčar, I. Mozetič

*PLoS ONE *

#### Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties

Y. Eom, M. Puliga, J. Smailović, I. Mozetič, G. Caldarelli

* PLoS ONE*

#### A measure of majorization emerging from single-shot statistical mechanics

D. Egloff, O. Dahlsten, R. Renner, V. Vedral

*New Journal of Physics*

#### Spin systems on hypercubic Bethe lattices: a Bethe–Peierls approach

A. Mozeika, A. Coolen

*Journal of Physics A*

#### DebtRank: a microscopic foundation for shock propagation

M. Bardoscia, S. Battiston, F. Caccioli, G. Caldarelli

*PLOS ONE*

#### Structures and stability of calcium and magnesium carbonates at mantle pressures

C. Pickard, R. Needs

*Physical Review B*

#### How the interbank market becomes systemically dangerous: an agent-based network model of financial distress propagation

M. Serri, G. Caldarelli, G. Cimini

*Network Theory of Finance*

#### Maximum percolation time in two-dimensional bootstrap percolation

F. Benevides, M. Przykucki

*SIAM Journal on Discrete Mathematics*

#### How the taxonomy of products drives the economic development of countries

A. Zaccaria, M. Cristelli, A. Tacchella, L. Pietronero

*PLOS ONE*

#### Credit default swaps networks and systemic risk

M. Puliga, G. Caldarelli, S. Battiston

*Scientific Reports *

#### Entropies of tailored random graph ensembles: bipartite graphs, generalized degrees, and node neighbourhoods

E. Roberts, A. Coolen

*Journal of Physics A*

#### Easily repairable networks: reconnecting nodes after damage

R. Farr, J. Harer, T. Fink

*Physical Review Letters*

#### The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach

Z. Zhu, F. Cerina, A. Chessa, G. Caldarelli, M. Riccaboni

*PLoS ONE *

#### Bootstrap percolation on Galton–Watson trees

B. Bollobas, K. Gunderson, C. Janson, M. Przykucki

*Electronic Journal of Probability*

#### Predicting interface structures: from SrTiO 3 to graphene

G. Schusteritsch, C. Pickard

*Physical Review B*

#### A multi-Level geographical study of Italian political elections from Twitter data

G. Caldarelli, A. Chessa, F. Pammolli, G. Pompa, M. , M. Riccaboni, G. Riotta

*PLOS ONE*

#### Memory effects in stock price dynamics: evidences of technical trading

F. Garzarelli, M. Cristelli, G. Pompa, A. Zaccaria, L. Pietronero

*Scientific Reports*

#### Electron-phonon coupling and the metalization of solid helium at terapascal pressures

B. Monserrat, N. Drummond, C. Pickard, R. Needs

*Physical Review Letters*

#### Imperfections in a two-dimensional hierarchical structure

D. Rayneau-Kirkhope, Y. Mao, R. Farr

*Physical Review E*

#### Default cascades in complex networks: topology and systemic risk

T. Roukny, H. Bersini, H. Pirotte, G. Caldarelli, S. Battiston

*Scientific Reports *

#### Immune networks: multitasking capabilities near saturation

E. Agliari, A. Annibale, A. Barra, A. Coolen, D. Tantari

*Journal of Physics A*

#### Economic complexity: conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness

A. Tacchella, M. Cristelli, G. Caldarelli, A. Gabrielli, L. Pietronero

*Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control*

#### Measuring the intangibles: a metric for the economic complexity of countries and products

M. Cristelli, A. Gabrielli, A. Tacchella, G. Caldarelli, L. Pietronero

*PLOS ONE*

#### Low-temperature behaviour of social and economic networks

D. Garlaschelli, S. Ahnert, T. Fink, G. Caldarelli

*Entropy*

#### Optimal scales in weighted networks

D. Garlaschelli, S. Ahnert, T. Fink, G. Caldarelli

*Social Informatics *

#### Immune networks: multi-tasking capabilities at medium load

E. Agliari, A. Annibale, A. Barra, A. Coolen, D. Tantari

*Journal of Physics A*

#### Optimization of fractal space frames under gentle compressive load

D. Rayneau-Kirkhope, Y. Mao, R. Farr

*Physical Review E*

#### Evolution of controllability in interbank networks

D. Delpini, S. Battiston, M. Riccaboni, G. Gabbi, F. Pammolli, G. Caldarelli

*Scientific Reports*

#### Reconstructing a credit network

G. Caldarelli, A. Chessa, F. Pammolli, A. Gabrielli, M. Puliga

*Nature Physics*

#### Bootstrapping topology and systemic risk of complex network using the fitness model

N. Musmeci, S. Battiston, G. Caldarelli, M. Puliga, A. Gabrielli

*Journal of Statistical Physics*

#### Weighted networks as randomly reinforced urn processes

G. Caldarelli, A. Chessa, I. Crimaldi, F. Pammolli

*Physical Review E*

#### Ultralight fractal structures from hollow tubes

D. Rayneau-Kirkhope, Y. Mao, R. Farr

*Physical Review Letters*

#### Hierarchical space frames for high mechanical efficiency: Fabrication and mechanical testing

D. Rayneau-Kirkhope, Y. Mao, R. Farr, J. Segal

*Mechanics Research Communications*

#### A new metric for countries’ fitness and products’ complexity

A. Tacchella, M. Cristelli, G. Caldarelli, A. Gabrielli, L. Pietronero

*Scientific Reports*

#### A network analysis of countries’ export flows: firm grounds for the building blocks of the economy

G. Caldarelli, M. Cristelli, A. Gabrielli, L. Pietronero, A. Scala, A. Tacchella

*PLOS ONE*

#### Using networks to understand medical data: the case of class III malocclusions

A. Scala, P. Auconi, M. Scazzocchio, G. Caldarelli, J. McNamara, L. Franchi

*PLoS ONE *

#### Web search queries can predict stock market volumes

I. Bordino, S. Battiston, G. Caldarelli, M. Cristelli, A. Ukkonen, I. Weber

*PLoS ONE *

#### Unbiased degree-preserving randomization of directed binary networks

E. Roberts, A. Coolen

*Physical Review E*

#### Robustness and assortativity for diffusion-like processes in scale-free networks

G. D'Agostino, A. Scala, V. Zlatić, G. Caldarelli

*EPL*

#### Shear elastic deformation and particle packing in plant cell dispersions

P. Lopez-Sanchez, V. Chapara, S. Schumm, R. Farr

*Food Biophysics*

#### What you see is not what you get: how sampling affects macroscopic features of biological networks

A. Annibale, A. Coolen

*Interface Focus*

#### Power laws in the elasticity and yielding of plant particle suspensions

P. Lopez-Sanchez, R. Farr

*Food Biophysics*

#### Transfer operator analysis of the parallel dynamics of disordered Ising chains

A. Coolen, K. Takeda

*Philosophical Magazine*

#### Diffusional Monte Carlo model of liquid-phase sintering

A. R.S.Farr

*Mathematics and Computers in Simulation*

#### Tailored graph ensembles as proxies or null models for real networks II: results on directed graphs

E. Roberts, T. Schlitt, A. Coolen

*Journal of Physics A*

#### Self-assembly, modularity, and physical complexity

S. Ahnert, I. Johnston, T. Fink, J. Doye, A. Louis

*Physical Review E*

#### Estimate for the fractal dimension of the Apollonian gasket in d dimensions

R. Farr, E. Griffiths

*Physical Review E*

121 / 121 papers