M. Puliga

G. Caldarelli

S. Battiston

CDS spreads over time for the selected institutions

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

Credit default swaps networks and systemic risk

Next generation structures and materials are key to aerospace, the built environment and exploring space. Hierarchical materials, fractal structures, and polydisperse systems offer dramatic gains in efficiency. Advances in 3D printing and self-assembly mean that these novel technologies can be practically manufactured.

Extreme materials

Silicon-based electronic computing is hitting energetic and technological barriers, and quantum computing remains a theoretical challenge of the future. To maintain an exponential increase in computing power, we require alternative frameworks. Two which we are studying are memristors and photonic computing.

Low-energy computing

Information science underpins modern society. Quantum information science is creating the next generation of information technology, where effects like superposition and entanglement are exploited to envisage qualitatively new technologies. This field also gives an alternative perspective on physics, wherein information takes centre stage.

Quantum information

Innovation is to organizations what evolution is to organisms: it is how organisations adapt to changes in the environment and improve. New mathematical models of component recombination and the building blocks of economic complexity offer fundamental insights into how firms, countries and technologies develop.

Science of innovation

The global behaviour of local processes depends on the geometry of their underlying space. Studying processes on ideal graphs and on irregular networks derived from real data uncovers surprising behaviour in biological, social and financial systems. The tools of this field include spectral, replica, community and combinatoric techniques.

Graph theory

Institutional risk originates from ordinary economic uncertainties. But when these risks propagate across inter-connected institutions, internal amplification can lead to dramatic exposures. These systemic risks can be mitigated by applying ideas from cascading failures, diversification and extreme value theory.