Credit default swaps networks and systemic risk

CDS spreads over time for the selected institutions

Scientific Reports 4, 1 (2014)

M. Puliga, G. Caldarelli, S. Battiston

LQ placeholderCDS spreads over time for the selected institutions

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

LQ placeholderNetwork valuation in financial systems

Network valuation in financial systems

P. Barucca, M. Bardoscia, F. Caccioli, M. D’Errico, G. Visentin, G. Caldarelli, S. Battiston

Mathematical Finance

LQ placeholderThe space of functions computed by deep layered machines

The space of functions computed by deep layered machines

A. Mozeika, B. Li, D. Saad

Sub. to Physical Review Letters

LQ placeholderReplica analysis of overfitting in generalized linear models

Replica analysis of overfitting in generalized linear models

T. Coolen, M. Sheikh, A. Mozeika, F. Aguirre-Lopez, F. Antenucci

Sub. to Journal of Physics A

LQ placeholderTaming complexity

Taming complexity

M. Reeves, S. Levin, T. Fink, A. Levina

Harvard Business Review

LQ placeholderReplica analysis of Bayesian data clustering

Replica analysis of Bayesian data clustering

A. Mozeika, T. Coolen

Journal of Physics A

LQ placeholderDegree-correlations in a bursting dynamic network model

Degree-correlations in a bursting dynamic network model

F. Vanni, P. Barucca

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination

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