Web search queries can predict stock market volumes

I. Bordino, S. Battiston, G. Caldarelli, M. Cristelli, A. Ukkonen, I. Weber

PLoS ONE 1, 1 (2012)


Download the PDF

LQ placeholderGraphical illustration of the analysis presented in this paper.

Graphical illustration of the analysis presented in this paper.

We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www.

LQ placeholder

Stock market tip: use Google Trends

Web search queries can predict stock market volumes

The Conversation, 2013-04-26

LQ placeholder

Las emociones en Twitter sobre el bitcoin son capaces de mover su valor

Web search queries can predict stock market volumes

El Pais, 2015-06-13

LQ placeholder

Degree-correlations in a bursting dynamic network model

F. Vanni, P. Barucca

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination

LQ placeholder

Scale of non-locality for a system of n particles

S. Talaganis, I. Teimouri

Sub. to Physical Review D

LQ placeholder

Changes to Gate Closure and its impact on wholesale electricity prices: The case of the UK

A. Facchini, A. Rubino, G. Caldarelli, G. Liddo

Energy Policy

LQ placeholder

How much can we influence the rate of innovation?

T. Fink, M. Reeves

Science Advances

LQ placeholder

The statistical physics of real-world networks

G. Cimini, T. Squartini, F. Saracco, D. Garlaschelli, A. Gabrielli, G. Caldarelli

Nature Reviews Physics

LQ placeholder

PopRank: Ranking pages’ impact and users’ engagement on Facebook

A. Zaccaria, M. Vicario, W. Quattrociocchi, A. Scala, L. Pietronero


128 / 128 papers