Theory of human enterprise

Can we predict the behaviour of human enterprise? To what extent can we influence it for economic and social benefit? We develop mathematical models of financial markets, technological innovation and organisational intelligence, and use them to help revise the rules of the game.

  • A fix for failure that’s contagious

    Systemic risk

    Applying ideas from diversification and cascading failures to mitigate the propagation of risk across inter-connected institutions.

  • Economic complexity

    Applying spectral-like theories to the bipartite network of products and capabilities to find latent potential in countries and firms.

  • Sense from social networks

    Developing new local and global measures for networks derived from social interactions to infer social structure, sentiment and behaviour.

  • Markets and the mind

    Examining the effect of public opinion on stock market returns and harnessing social sentiment to make quantitative market predictions.

  • News and fake news

    Investigating the adverse effects of information asymmetry and deliberate errors in social media and the press, and attempts to remedy them.

  • Reconstructing credit networks

    Using ideas from statistical physics to reconstruct the average properties of financial networks from partial sets of information.

  • Technological progress

    Forecasting the rate of technological progress by harnessing empirical regularities captured by Moore’s law and Wright’s law.

  • The structure of innovation

    Creating a mathematical model of combinatorial innovation to understand how innovation rates can be influenced as components are acquired.