How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

We presented a method to test the accuracy and validity of experience curve forecasts.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 128, 104 (2018)

F. Lafond, A. Bailey, J. Bakker, D. Rebois, R. Zadourian, P. McSharry, D. Farmer

LQ placeholderWe presented a method to test the accuracy and validity of experience curve forecasts.

Experience curves are widely used to predict the cost benefits of increasing the deployment of a technology. But how good are such forecasts? Can one predict their accuracy a priori? In this paper we answer these questions by developing a method to make distributional forecasts for experience curves. We test our method using a dataset with proxies for cost and experience for 51 products and technologies and show that it works reasonably well. The framework that we develop helps clarify why the experience curve method often gives similar results to simply assuming that costs decrease exponentially. To illustrate our method we make a distributional forecast for prices of solar photovoltaic modules.

LQ placeholderNetwork valuation in financial systems

Network valuation in financial systems

P. Barucca, M. Bardoscia, F. Caccioli, M. D’Errico, G. Visentin, G. Caldarelli, S. Battiston

Mathematical Finance

LQ placeholderThe space of functions computed by deep layered machines

The space of functions computed by deep layered machines

A. Mozeika, B. Li, D. Saad

Sub. to Physical Review Letters

LQ placeholderReplica analysis of overfitting in generalized linear models

Replica analysis of overfitting in generalized linear models

T. Coolen, M. Sheikh, A. Mozeika, F. Aguirre-Lopez, F. Antenucci

Sub. to Journal of Physics A

LQ placeholderTaming complexity

Taming complexity

M. Reeves, S. Levin, T. Fink, A. Levina

Harvard Business Review

LQ placeholderReplica analysis of Bayesian data clustering

Replica analysis of Bayesian data clustering

A. Mozeika, T. Coolen

Journal of Physics A

LQ placeholderDegree-correlations in a bursting dynamic network model

Degree-correlations in a bursting dynamic network model

F. Vanni, P. Barucca

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination

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