Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.
TF
IT
Draft for Nature CommunicationRecursive structure of innovation
A theoretical model of recursive innovation suggests that new technologies are recursively built up from new combinations of existing ones.
TF
MR
Science AdvancesThe rate of innovation
The distribution of product complexity helps explain why some technology sectors tend to exhibit faster innovation rates than others.
FL
ABJBDRRZ... Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeForecasting technology deployment
Forecast errors for simple experience curve models facilitate more reliable estimates for the costs of technology deployment.
DF
FL Research PolicyPredicting technological progress
A formulation of Moore’s law estimates the probability that a given technology will outperform another at a certain point in the future.