Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.

  • The mathematical structure of innovation

    TFT. FinkITI. Teimouri Arxiv

    Recursive structure of innovation

    A theoretical model of recursive innovation suggests that new technologies are recursively built up from new combinations of existing ones.

  • How much can we influence the rate of innovation?

    TFT. FinkMRM. Reeves Science Advances

    The rate of innovation

    The distribution of product complexity helps explain why some technology sectors tend to exhibit faster innovation rates than others.

  • How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

    FLF. LafondABJBDRRZPMDFD. Farmer Technological Forecasting and Social Change

    Forecasting technology deployment

    Forecast errors for simple experience curve models facilitate more reliable estimates for the costs of technology deployment.

  • How predictable is technological progress?

    DFD. FarmerFLF. Lafond Research Policy

    Predicting technological progress

    A formulation of Moore’s law estimates the probability that a given technology will outperform another at a certain point in the future.