Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.

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  • Network valuation in financial systems

    PBP. BaruccaMBM. BardosciaFCMDGV... Mathematical Finance

    Network valuation in financial systems

    Consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system can be found with a recursive update of banks' equities.

  • DebtRank: a microscopic foundation for shock propagation

    MBM. BardosciaSBFCGCG. Caldarelli PLOS ONE

    DebtRank and shock propagation

    A dynamical microscopic theory of instability for financial networks reformulates the DebtRank algorithm in terms of basic accounting principles.

  • How the interbank market becomes systemically dangerous: an agent-based network model of financial distress propagation

    MSGCG. CaldarelliGC Network Theory of Finance

    Fragility of the interbank network

    The speed of a financial crisis outbreak sets the maximum delay before intervention by central authorities is no longer effective.

  • Credit default swaps networks and systemic risk

    MPGCG. CaldarelliSB Scientific Reports

    Networks of credit default swaps

    Time series data from networks of credit default swaps display no early warnings of financial crises without additional macroeconomic indicators.

  • Scientific Reports

    Interbank controllability

    Complex networks detect the driver institutions of an interbank market and ascertain that intervention policies should be time-scale dependent.

  • Journal of Statistical Physics

    Bootstrapping topology and risk

    Information about 10% of the links in a complex network is sufficient to reconstruct its main features and resilience with the fitness model.