Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.

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  • The mathematical structure of innovation

    TFT. FinkITI. Teimouri Arxiv

    Recursive structure of innovation

    A theoretical model of recursive innovation suggests that new technologies are recursively built up from new combinations of existing ones.

  • How much can we influence the rate of innovation?

    TFT. FinkMRM. Reeves Science Advances

    The rate of innovation

    The distribution of product complexity helps explain why some technology sectors tend to exhibit faster innovation rates than others.

  • How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

    FLF. LafondABJBDRRZPMDFD. Farmer Technological Forecasting and Social Change

    Forecasting technology deployment

    Forecast errors for simple experience curve models facilitate more reliable estimates for the costs of technology deployment.

  • Searching for great strategies

    TFT. FinkPGMRM. Reeves Strategy Science

    The science of strategy

    The usefulness of components and the complexity of products inform the best strategy for innovation at different stages of the process.

  • Nature Communications

    Serendipity and strategy

    In systems of innovation, the relative usefulness of different components changes as the number of components we possess increases.

  • MIT Sloan Management Review

    The secret structure of innovation

    Firms can harness the shifting importance of component building blocks to build better products and services and hence increase their chances of sustained success.

  • Research Policy

    Predicting technological progress

    A formulation of Moore’s law estimates the probability that a given technology will outperform another at a certain point in the future.

  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

    Organized knowledge economies

    The Yule-Simon distribution describes the diffusion of knowledge and ideas in a social network which in turn influences economic growth.

  • Scientific Reports

    Metric for fitness and complexity

    A quantitative assessment of the non-monetary advantage of diversification represents a country’s hidden potential for development and growth.