Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.
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Theory of innovation
TF
IT
ArxivRecursive structure of innovation
A theoretical model of recursive innovation suggests that new technologies are recursively built up from new combinations of existing ones.
Theory of innovation
TF
MR
Science AdvancesThe rate of innovation
The distribution of product complexity helps explain why some technology sectors tend to exhibit faster innovation rates than other sectors.
Technological progress
FL
ABJBDRRZ... Technological Forecasting and Social ChangeForecasting technology deployment
Forecast errors for simple experience curve models facilitate more reliable estimates for the costs of technology deployment.
Theory of innovation
TF
PGMR Strategy ScienceThe science of strategy
The usefulness of components and the complexity of products inform the best strategy for innovation at different stages of the process.
Theory of innovation
The secret structure of innovation
Firms can harness the shifting importance of component building blocks to build better products and services and hence increase their chances of sustained success.
Theory of innovation
Serendipity and strategy
In systems of innovation, the relative usefulness of different components changes as the number of components we possess increases.
Technological progress
Predicting technological progress
A formulation of Moore’s law estimates the probability that a given technology will outperform another at a certain point in the future.
Technological progress
Organized knowledge economies
The Yule-Simon distribution describes the diffusion of knowledge and ideas in a social network which in turn influences economic growth.
Economic complexity
Metric for fitness and complexity
A quantitative assessment of the non-monetary advantage of diversification represents a country’s hidden potential for development and growth.