Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.

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  • How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts

    FLF. LafondABJBDRRZPMDFD. Farmer Technological Forecasting and Social Change

    Forecasting technology deployment

    Forecast errors for simple experience curve models facilitate more reliable estimates for the costs of technology deployment.

  • How predictable is technological progress?

    DFD. FarmerFLF. Lafond Research Policy

    Predicting technological progress

    A formulation of Moore’s law estimates the probability that a given technology will outperform another at a certain point in the future.

  • Coupling news sentiment with web browsing data improves prediction of intra-day price dynamics

    GRIBGBGCG. CaldarelliFLMT PLoS ONE

    News sentiment and price dynamics

    News sentiment analysis and web browsing data are unilluminating alone, but inspected together, predict fluctuations in stock prices.

  • The effects of Twitter sentiment on stock price returns

    GRDAGCG. CaldarelliMGIM PLoS ONE

    Effect of Twitter on stock prices

    When the number of tweets about an event peaks, the sentiment of those tweets correlates strongly with abnormal stock market returns.

  • PLoS ONE

    Collective attention to politics

    Tweet volume is a good indicator of political parties' success in elections when considered over an optimal time window so as to minimise noise.

  • PLOS ONE

    Dynamics of economic complexity

    Dynamical systems theory predicts the growth potential of countries with heterogeneous patterns of evolution where regression methods fail.

  • Scientific Reports

    Memory effects in stock dynamics

    The likelihood of stock prices bouncing on specific values increases due to memory effects in the time series data of the price dynamics.

  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

    Metrics for global competitiveness

    A new non-monetary metric captures diversification, a dominant effect on the globalised market, and the effective complexity of products.

  • PLoS ONE

    Search queries predict stocks

    Analysis of web search queries about a given stock, from the seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users, can anticipate the trading peak.