Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.
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Economic complexity
PB
TMLS Journal of Financial StabilityChannels of contagion
Fire sales of common asset holdings can whip through a channel of contagion between banks, insurance companies and investments funds.
Financial risk
SMHŠGC
VZ Physical Review ERisky bank interactions
Networks where risky banks are mostly exposed to other risky banks have higher levels of systemic risk than those with stable bank interactions.
Financial markets
PB
MB
FCMDGV... Mathematical FinanceNetwork valuation in finance
Consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system can be found with a recursive update of banks' equities.
Network theory
FVPB
Journal of Economic Interaction and CoordinationBursting dynamic networks
A mathematical model captures the temporal and steady state behaviour of networks whose two sets of nodes either generate or destroy links.
Financial networks
The interbank network
The large-scale structure of the interbank network changes drastically in times of crisis due to the effect of measures from central banks.
Financial risk
Modelling financial systemic risk
Complex networks model the links between financial institutions and how these channels can transition from diversifying to propagating risk.
Financial markets
Financial network reconstruction
Statistical mechanics concepts reconstruct connections between financial institutions and the stock market, despite limited data disclosure.
Complex networks, Financial risk
Non-linear distress propagation
Non-linear models of distress propagation in financial networks characterise key regimes where shocks are either amplified or suppressed.
Financial risk
Immunisation of systemic risk
Targeted immunisation policies limit distress propagation and prevent system-wide crises in financial networks according to sandpile models.
Financial risk, Network theory
Fragility of the interbank network
The speed of a financial crisis outbreak sets the maximum delay before intervention by central authorities is no longer effective.
Financial networks
Reconstructing credit
New mathematical tools can help infer financial networks from partial data to understand the propagation of distress through the network.