Our papers are the official record of our discoveries. They allow others to build on and apply our work. Each paper is the result of many months of research, so we make a special effort to make them clear, beautiful and inspirational, and publish them in leading journals.

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  • The physics of financial networks

    MBM. BardosciaPBP. BaruccaSBFCGCDGFSTSGCG. Caldarelli Nature Reviews Physics

    The physics of financial networks

    Complex network theory unlocks systematic understanding of financial stability and climate finance in pursuit of a more sustainable society.

  • Network valuation in financial systems

    PBP. BaruccaMBM. BardosciaFCMDGVGCG. CaldarelliSB Mathematical Finance

    Network valuation in financial systems

    Consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system can be found with a recursive update of banks' equities.

  • From ecology to finance (and back?): a review on entropy-based null models for the analysis of bipartite networks

    MSGCG. CaldarelliTSFS Journal of Statistical Physics

    From ecology to finance

    Bipartite networks model the structures of ecological and economic real-world systems, enabling hypothesis testing and crisis forecasting.

  • Enhanced capital-asset pricing model for bipartite financial networks reconstruction

    TSGCG. CaldarelliGC Physical Review E

    Financial network reconstruction

    Statistical mechanics concepts reconstruct connections between financial institutions and the stock market, despite limited data disclosure.

  • Nature Communications

    Pathways towards instability

    Processes believed to stabilize financial markets can drive them towards instability by creating cyclical structures that amplify distress.

  • Journal de Physique IV

    Immunisation of systemic risk

    Targeted immunisation policies limit distress propagation and prevent system-wide crises in financial networks according to sandpile models.

  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA

    The price of complexity

    Increasing the complexity of the network of contracts between financial institutions decreases the accuracy of estimating systemic risk.

  • PLOS ONE

    DebtRank and shock propagation

    A dynamical microscopic theory of instability for financial networks reformulates the DebtRank algorithm in terms of basic accounting principles.

  • Network Theory of Finance

    Fragility of the interbank network

    The speed of a financial crisis outbreak sets the maximum delay before intervention by central authorities is no longer effective.

  • Scientific Reports

    Networks of credit default swaps

    Time series data from networks of credit default swaps display no early warnings of financial crises without additional macroeconomic indicators.

  • Scientific Reports

    Interbank controllability

    Complex networks detect the driver institutions of an interbank market and ascertain that intervention policies should be time-scale dependent.

  • PLoS ONE

    Search queries predict stocks

    Analysis of web search queries about a given stock, from the seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users, can anticipate the trading peak.